Commercial Real Estate Blog

We’ve launched a commercial real estate forum. A day in and we have some activity - thanks for those that decided to be brave and give it a go.

We hope the forum will become self-sustaining at some point in the near future, but until then we’re available to answer any questions users might have about commercial real estate. We also welcome posts advertising space, goods, products, and services, so long as it is commercial real estate related.  Anything that is spam or isn’t relevant will likely be deleted.

Other than that, give it a go and have fun.

After seeing rents continuously rise over the past 24 to 36 months, Tenants are finally beginning to see an easing in rental rates. During the past two quarters, net absorption in the South Bay and Peninsula markets have either been flat or mildly negative. In the Silicon Valley, depending on whose numbers you use, net absorption in the first quarter was in the range of minus 50-100k. At the same time rents remained fairly static.

Landlords, experiencing a marked slowdown in leasing activity have now begun to question the strength of the market. In some instances, Landlords are keeping asking rents up but getting more aggressive in providing concessions. Equity Office, which first used this approach with some of its projects, has now begun to actually lower their asking rents in some of their projects.

It helps to understand how the debt markets had an impact on the rapid rise in rents, and what could be the beginning of a period of weakness in the markets. During the past several years, cheap financing coupled with lax lending standards allowed investors to buy and sell buildings and projects at an unprecendented rate. 

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Bay Area janitors, who first went on strike May 20th have approved a new contract. The contract increases their wages by $2.40 per hour over the next four years, which represents a 22% increase.

The janitors who walked off the job are responsible for cleaning approximately 80 percent of the commercial real estate in the South and East Bay. Some of the valley’s largest companies in the valley (Cisco, Oracle, Intel, and Yahoo) were amongst those affected by the strike.

The janitors will begin work as soon as this afternoon.

We’re starting to see more reports of the credit crunch infecting Silicon Valley make the mainstreem press. IHT came out with an article the other day discussing how startups in Silicon Valley are beginning to feel the crunch.

For the most part, landlords and brokers have remained fairly bullish on the prospects of Silicon Valley with some landlords continuing to raise rents on some buildings despite having signed no deals in the building at the lower rental rate they were asking only a few months ago. It should also be noted that some landlords such as Jay Paul at their Moffett Towers project have been lowering rents at the same time.

But I think many people are making a mistake here. They’re looking at what’s on the ground now and assuming that because we have so many multi-national companies here, we will somehow be okay. But Silicon Valley has never been about “today”. It has been about innovation, and “tomorrow”, and that’s where I think people need to look when assessing the situation.

What is happening with the capital markets is affecting startups today, but tomorrow it will be the VC’s themselves who face a tight capital market when looking to raise capital for their next fund. VC’s with solid track records will likely be able to raise additional funds, but many others will likely not be as fortunate. As a result, we’re seeing some VC’s becoming increasingly cautious with their existing capital, and funding fewer companies and under better terms. It is that reason why that unless the capital markets are able to sort themselves out, Silicon Valley will not be immune and the downturn may be worse than many think.

Over the past 24 months, rental rates in the Silicon Valley, the Peninsula, and San Francisco have all seen a dramatic increases. Rental rates in some buildings have jumped nearly 75% over the past 24 months thanks to aggressive new owners looking to benefit from increased demand.

During the past two quarters however, that trend has seemed to have stalled in many buildings and submarkets, and in fact we are now beginning to see some reversal. One of the more notable and bold spec projects currently under construction is the Moffett Towers project being developed by the Jay Paul Companies. The project which sits at the intersection of 237 and 101 in Sunnyvale originally was being marketed at $3.25 NNN.

The economic realities facing Silicon Valley today along with a fairly packed pipeline of office space in Sunnyvale has now caused Jay Paul to lower asking rents for the project to $2.95 NNN hoping that some leases can be signed. There were some rumors swirling around in the past that Google had signed up for some space in the project but that now seems unlikely.

The market in Sunnyvale remains to be one which developers such as Menlo Equities, Sand Hill Property, RREEF, and Jay Paul, amongst others are together delivering well in excess of a million square feet Class A office product.

This translates into an excellent opportunity for tenants seeking Class A office space to pit landlords against eachother and to strike a deal at favorable terms.

The Fed’s recent actions to help stabilize economic conditions are not impressing foreigner’s holding US debt instruments. The inflationary actions of the Fed have resulted in foreign buyers of US debt to essentially boycott government auctions for treasuries.

Over the past eight weeks, the share of foreign buyers participating in these auctions was somewhere around 25%. In last week’s auction, they represented only 5.8%.

Additional steps the Fed has taken or will take this week include bailing out Bear Stearns by essentially financing a JPMorgan takeover of Bear Stearns. The emergency overnight rate for bank’s was cut by 25 basis points, and in the Fed’s next meeting, they might cut interest rates by as much as seventy five basis points.

Unfortunately though, the Fed can only control short term rates. What the Fed cannot do is control long term rates and that is what will affect commercial real estate going forward. The current economic conditions, compounded by inflationary pressures and increasing long term rates does not bode well for holders of such real estate. What we see is people continuing to be bullish in certain market sectors, but it is hard to see how they envision that some sectors, such as Silicon Valley, will escape unscathed.

Time will tell who is right, but with a weakening dollar and thereby increasing commodity prices (for those priced in US Dollars), the effect will be felt in Silicon Valley. We are seeing some Venture Capitalists increasingly wary of their ability to raise any more money in this market and have become increasingly conservative in placing investments.

This has already and will continue to have an impact on the Silicon Valley Market.

Fresh & Easy, the grocery store concept by british-based Tesco who has been on an aggressive expansion plan in Southern California and soon to be Northern California reported sales numbers well below the $100M estimate over six-months.

Turns out that sales only came in at $30M. The poor performance comes at a time when the retailer is continuing its expansion plans with four stores planned in the South Bay.