Commercial Real Estate Blog

Palo Alto has announced that any commercial construction greater than 25,000 square feet will require Green Building Council verification. That move makes it the first south bay city to codify green building. While many new projects coming out of the ground today seek LEED certification, the fact is that ultimately the increased expense of LEED building, at least for the first few years, will be something which will affect the land costs a developer can afford to build. Ultimately, it is the tenants which much demand LEED buildings, otherwise the only difference to a developer is that they are delivering a building at a higher cost. If tenant’s do not demand LEED space and are prepared to pay for it, then mandating LEED does nothing more than reduce the land cost a developer can pay.

The mandate however is not something that will bring commercial construction to a halt. It will simply take a few years to work out as ultimately the tenant demand for LEED space will materialize one way or another; whether voluntary or driven by market forces. Until then, developers will continue to build but it will just take more to make a deal to pencil.

As part of their cost cutting plan, Hewlett Packard is reducing its footprint in Cupertino and Palo Alto by approximately 25%. In addition, HP has in the recent past been divesting some assets it owned in the South Bay cities of Cupertino and Mountain View.

The plan is to more efficiently use space and is not a result of layoffs. HP has bounced back in recent years under the leadership of Mark Hurd, who made it part of his plan to reduce real estate costs.

Cornish and Carey held its annual forecast in Santa Clara this week. Along the lines of what I’ve been writing about, they are predicting rental rates to be static for 2008 for office and R&D, and vacancy rates to remain in a similar state.

The fact is that there is a large amount of new space coming online in 2008. In addition, there remains a fair amount of space available outside of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Shoreline, and Cupertino submarkets. All of these submarkets will see new buildings come online this year, though no tremendously large projects are slated to dramatically change the landscape. In Sunnyvale however, Menlo Equities, Jay Paul, Sand Hill Property/RREEF JV, and a few smaller projects are bringing online more than 1.5M square feet of space this year alone. That is enough for 7500 employees in a time when most people now see that job growth will also be static if not recessionary this year.

As a result, we believe a portion of the price increases in the past 12-30 months we’ve seen in some of the softer markets outside those indicated above have been in large part a combination of broker hype and new owners paying dear prices for commercial property and being essentially forced to raise rents to make their deals pencil.

I think that while we may not see landlords drop asking rents immediately, smart landlords see the writing on the walls and we’ll see some get more aggressive in making deals.

Microsoft has launched a $45B unsolicited bid for Yahoo! Combined, the two would be a more formidable competitor to Google, both in terms of search market share, as well as ad inventory. What will be interesting to see is that if the acquisition is indeed successful, to what extend Microsoft will embrace open-source technologies and how it integrates the two companies.

From a real estate perspective, in Silicon Valley, Microsoft may elect to keep things seperate but also has the option of utilizing Yahoo!’s 50-acre campus site in Santa Clara it purchased two years ago to combine operations. Yahoo! is currently leasing most of its Santa Clara facilities on leases which expire roughly 2-3 years from now. Given the current job cuts and overall woes with the company however, it is unlikely that they would break ground on a new campus anytime soon. Microsoft recently renegotiated for a longer term on its 450,000 SF Mountain View campus.

Also today, Kara Swisher revealed financials from Facebook based on a company-wide conference call held by Mark Zuckerberg. Some numbers are below:

• 2007 Revenues: $150 million
• 2008 Revenues: $300 to $350 million (projected)
• 2007 Headcount: 450
• 2008 Headcount: 1,000 (projected)
• 2008 Capital Expenditures: $200 million (i.e., servers)
• 2008 EBITDA: $50 million
• 2008 Cash Flow (EBITDA - CapEx): negative 150 million.

Based on the above, it would indicate that Facebook will likely be out in the market very soon looking for at least 100,000 SF of space. They are also hiring an executive chef which implies that they are emulating Google in many regards and it will likely push their requirement north of 100,000 into the 200,000-250,000 SF territory to accomodate growth simply beyond the 2008 mark.

Most of Silicon Valley has been unscathed by the sub-prime mess with bank-owned homes being a fairly uncommon site (with the exception of East San Jose). Lately however we have been finding more and more bank owned properties in more exclusive neighborhoods. For the past several years finding a bank-owned property in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Palo Alto, or San Francisco would have been very rare. While the number of properties coming on the market that are REO in these markets still remains low, we have noticed a few cracks begin to show in these high end markets.

What we have also noticed is that there is a fair number of NoD (notice of defaults) occurring in some of these higher end markets as well. The numbers are still insignificant in these particular markets to have any material impact as the market remains hot enough to allow people in trouble to get out safely, it is something to keep a close eye on as some good opportunities might be arising very soon.

Some of the sites for the lenders which they list their REO properties on include:

Bank of America REO

Countrywide REO

Wells Fargo REO

A 112,000 square foot office building currently leased to WSGR (Wilson, Sonsini, Goodrich & Rosati) has been picked up by Shorenstein. The purchase price comes in at a whopping $85M representing a price tag of $750+ per square foot! The building was built in 1998 and is a single-tenant leased investment.

$85M is a monster number and is predicated amongst other things on the strength of the rental market within Stanford Research Park and it’s A+ location. Nonetheless, that is a big number.

San Carlos Office Space
999 Skyway Road - 6,000 SF - Plug N’ Play - $3.25 Full-Service

Palo Alto Office Space
2300 Geng Road - 1,963 SF - Plug N’ Play - $2.50 Full-Service