Commercial Real Estate Blog

Moffett Towers, Jay Paul Company’s massive office project at the intersection of Highway 237 and Highway 101 in Sunnyvale has been on the prowl for tenants since before it broke ground two years ago. Since then, there haven’t been any reports of any tenants signing up to take the space.

Initially Jay Paul brought the project online at an asking rate of $3.25 NNN with a $25 allowance over a shell. Since then they’ve lowered their asking rate to $2.95 and kept the same allowance. We’re now hearing that a couple letters of intent are going back and forth for some space at the project, though its unclear how much space the letters of intent represent and whether they will make it to lease. It should be noted that Brocade  (NASDAQ: BRCD) did consider this project as well as Legacy’s project on North First Street before deciding to take down Hunter Storm’s @First Development.

Sunnyvale is one of the markets that has seen the most speculative construction since rents and activity have spiked in the past few years. Some of the speculative projects in Sunnyvale include:

• Moffett Towers - 1.8M Square Feet (Phase 1 complete; approx. 800K SF)
• 111 Java Drive - 3 Building, 387,196 SF Project; Building 1 under construction
• 525 Almanor Ave - 5-Story 166K SF Building; Ready for TI’s next quarter
• 2502 Town Center Lane - 315K SF Office as part of Town Center Redevelopment. Should be ready approx. Q1, 2009.

In addition to these projects which are already out of the ground, other developers in Sunnyvale have approximately another 1M square feet of Class A entitled. This excludes the 2M square feet that Juniper Networks and Menlo Equities have adjacent to Jay Paul Company’s Moffett Tower project. 

Over the past 24 months, rental rates in the Silicon Valley, the Peninsula, and San Francisco have all seen a dramatic increases. Rental rates in some buildings have jumped nearly 75% over the past 24 months thanks to aggressive new owners looking to benefit from increased demand.

During the past two quarters however, that trend has seemed to have stalled in many buildings and submarkets, and in fact we are now beginning to see some reversal. One of the more notable and bold spec projects currently under construction is the Moffett Towers project being developed by the Jay Paul Companies. The project which sits at the intersection of 237 and 101 in Sunnyvale originally was being marketed at $3.25 NNN.

The economic realities facing Silicon Valley today along with a fairly packed pipeline of office space in Sunnyvale has now caused Jay Paul to lower asking rents for the project to $2.95 NNN hoping that some leases can be signed. There were some rumors swirling around in the past that Google had signed up for some space in the project but that now seems unlikely.

The market in Sunnyvale remains to be one which developers such as Menlo Equities, Sand Hill Property, RREEF, and Jay Paul, amongst others are together delivering well in excess of a million square feet Class A office product.

This translates into an excellent opportunity for tenants seeking Class A office space to pit landlords against eachother and to strike a deal at favorable terms.

Cornish and Carey held its annual forecast in Santa Clara this week. Along the lines of what I’ve been writing about, they are predicting rental rates to be static for 2008 for office and R&D, and vacancy rates to remain in a similar state.

The fact is that there is a large amount of new space coming online in 2008. In addition, there remains a fair amount of space available outside of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Shoreline, and Cupertino submarkets. All of these submarkets will see new buildings come online this year, though no tremendously large projects are slated to dramatically change the landscape. In Sunnyvale however, Menlo Equities, Jay Paul, Sand Hill Property/RREEF JV, and a few smaller projects are bringing online more than 1.5M square feet of space this year alone. That is enough for 7500 employees in a time when most people now see that job growth will also be static if not recessionary this year.

As a result, we believe a portion of the price increases in the past 12-30 months we’ve seen in some of the softer markets outside those indicated above have been in large part a combination of broker hype and new owners paying dear prices for commercial property and being essentially forced to raise rents to make their deals pencil.

I think that while we may not see landlords drop asking rents immediately, smart landlords see the writing on the walls and we’ll see some get more aggressive in making deals.