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S&P: Worst Yet To Come For Commercial Real Estate Loans

February 1, 2010

Tweet Despite all the good news that you’ve been hearing about commercial real estate, we haven’t been entirely convinced. We’ve indicated that uncertainty and continued weakness in rents and occupancy are powerful enough forces to keep the commercial real estate sector in check for some time. Now S&P is out with a research paper entitled, “Industry […]

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Howard Marks of Oaktree on the Economy

January 26, 2010

Tweet Hedge Fund Manager Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital put out a client memo discussing the economy. The 12-page letter is interesting, but the underlying theme is uncertainty. The document can be found on the below linked site. [via Business Insider]

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Gulf States Takes Steps Toward Unified Currency

December 16, 2009

Tweet Several Gulf States are taking the steps necessary to create a pan-arab currency. The core group of countries consists of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. The Gulf currency – dubbed “Gulfo” – is likely to track a global exchange basket and may ultimately float as a regional reserve currency in its own right. […]

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3-Month Treasury Bill Yields Turn Negative

November 19, 2009

Tweet This is not a good sign. The last time this happened was last year right around the Lehman blow up. The fact that yields are negative on the 3-month bills indicates that investors are staying on the sideline. Which raises the question of why (and how) equities have rallied so much if the money […]

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Roubini on the Carry Trade

November 2, 2009

Tweet Nouriel Roubini has written an article in the FT discussing the threat of basically a coordinated deflating of assets that is set to occur as a result of the low interest rate policy in the US. The low interest rates are creating a carry trade opportunity allowing investors to borrow at next to nothing […]

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CRE Shoe Next NOT To Drop?

October 21, 2009

Tweet Retail Traffic has an article out citing economists on why commercial real estate won’t be the next shoe to drop. Certainly commercial real estate won’t have the impact that the sub-prime housing crisis had, and will be more of a bank-level problem than at the consumer-level, but credit is ultimately what is needed. Take […]

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Plotting Against the US Dollar

October 5, 2009

Tweet Take a trip to Europe and you’ll very quickly realize how far the value of the US dollar has fallen. Since the printing presses have been turned on full tilt in this country, talk of China and Middle Eastern countries moving away from the dollar as their reserve currency of choice has correspondingly gained […]

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Unemployment and Deflation

October 2, 2009

Tweet A flurry of economic data was released this week. Contrary to the recovery that many are talking about, the data is heading in the opposite direction for the most part. We’re seeing some signs of stabilization in some numbers, and actual rebounds in others. Long story short though, no rebound is yet consistent enough […]

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Far From Being Out of The Woods

September 13, 2009

Tweet There are many conflicted views on the state of the economic recovery and the health of the banking system. Joseph Stiglitz, the former chief economist of the World Bank, has come out with some comments that indicate that the banking system is now in bigger trouble than it was the pre-Lehman Brothers collapse. On […]

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Debt Outlook for UK Turns Negative; US Next?

May 21, 2009

Tweet The S&P issued a negative outlook on the debt of the UK yesterday to negative, from stable. A few months ago I wrote a post slash rant about the UK being the world’s largest Ponzi scheme for having so much external debt in relation to their UK. It now looks like all the borrowing […]

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