Square Feet

We’re starting to see more reports of the credit crunch infecting Silicon Valley make the mainstreem press. IHT came out with an article the other day discussing how startups in Silicon Valley are beginning to feel the crunch.

For the most part, landlords and brokers have remained fairly bullish on the prospects of Silicon Valley with some landlords continuing to raise rents on some buildings despite having signed no deals in the building at the lower rental rate they were asking only a few months ago. It should also be noted that some landlords such as Jay Paul at their Moffett Towers project have been lowering rents at the same time.

But I think many people are making a mistake here. They’re looking at what’s on the ground now and assuming that because we have so many multi-national companies here, we will somehow be okay. But Silicon Valley has never been about “today”. It has been about innovation, and “tomorrow”, and that’s where I think people need to look when assessing the situation.

What is happening with the capital markets is affecting startups today, but tomorrow it will be the VC’s themselves who face a tight capital market when looking to raise capital for their next fund. VC’s with solid track records will likely be able to raise additional funds, but many others will likely not be as fortunate. As a result, we’re seeing some VC’s becoming increasingly cautious with their existing capital, and funding fewer companies and under better terms. It is that reason why that unless the capital markets are able to sort themselves out, Silicon Valley will not be immune and the downturn may be worse than many think.

As part of their cost cutting plan, Hewlett Packard is reducing its footprint in Cupertino and Palo Alto by approximately 25%. In addition, HP has in the recent past been divesting some assets it owned in the South Bay cities of Cupertino and Mountain View.

The plan is to more efficiently use space and is not a result of layoffs. HP has bounced back in recent years under the leadership of Mark Hurd, who made it part of his plan to reduce real estate costs.

Over the past 24 months, rental rates in the Silicon Valley, the Peninsula, and San Francisco have all seen a dramatic increases. Rental rates in some buildings have jumped nearly 75% over the past 24 months thanks to aggressive new owners looking to benefit from increased demand.

During the past two quarters however, that trend has seemed to have stalled in many buildings and submarkets, and in fact we are now beginning to see some reversal. One of the more notable and bold spec projects currently under construction is the Moffett Towers project being developed by the Jay Paul Companies. The project which sits at the intersection of 237 and 101 in Sunnyvale originally was being marketed at $3.25 NNN.

The economic realities facing Silicon Valley today along with a fairly packed pipeline of office space in Sunnyvale has now caused Jay Paul to lower asking rents for the project to $2.95 NNN hoping that some leases can be signed. There were some rumors swirling around in the past that Google had signed up for some space in the project but that now seems unlikely.

The market in Sunnyvale remains to be one which developers such as Menlo Equities, Sand Hill Property, RREEF, and Jay Paul, amongst others are together delivering well in excess of a million square feet Class A office product.

This translates into an excellent opportunity for tenants seeking Class A office space to pit landlords against eachother and to strike a deal at favorable terms.

The Fed’s recent actions to help stabilize economic conditions are not impressing foreigner’s holding US debt instruments. The inflationary actions of the Fed have resulted in foreign buyers of US debt to essentially boycott government auctions for treasuries.

Over the past eight weeks, the share of foreign buyers participating in these auctions was somewhere around 25%. In last week’s auction, they represented only 5.8%.

Additional steps the Fed has taken or will take this week include bailing out Bear Stearns by essentially financing a JPMorgan takeover of Bear Stearns. The emergency overnight rate for bank’s was cut by 25 basis points, and in the Fed’s next meeting, they might cut interest rates by as much as seventy five basis points.

Unfortunately though, the Fed can only control short term rates. What the Fed cannot do is control long term rates and that is what will affect commercial real estate going forward. The current economic conditions, compounded by inflationary pressures and increasing long term rates does not bode well for holders of such real estate. What we see is people continuing to be bullish in certain market sectors, but it is hard to see how they envision that some sectors, such as Silicon Valley, will escape unscathed.

Time will tell who is right, but with a weakening dollar and thereby increasing commodity prices (for those priced in US Dollars), the effect will be felt in Silicon Valley. We are seeing some Venture Capitalists increasingly wary of their ability to raise any more money in this market and have become increasingly conservative in placing investments.

This has already and will continue to have an impact on the Silicon Valley Market.

An SEC filing by NVIDIA has confirmed the purchase of approximately 475K SF of Office Space and land from Harvest Properties and Blackrock in Santa Clara by NVIDIA. We previously reported on the purchase back on February 15th.

The purchase of the park comes with a price tag of $150M, includes 25 acres, and 10 buildings on the property. It is being purchased by NVIDIA.

Cornish and Carey held its annual forecast in Santa Clara this week. Along the lines of what I’ve been writing about, they are predicting rental rates to be static for 2008 for office and R&D, and vacancy rates to remain in a similar state.

The fact is that there is a large amount of new space coming online in 2008. In addition, there remains a fair amount of space available outside of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Shoreline, and Cupertino submarkets. All of these submarkets will see new buildings come online this year, though no tremendously large projects are slated to dramatically change the landscape. In Sunnyvale however, Menlo Equities, Jay Paul, Sand Hill Property/RREEF JV, and a few smaller projects are bringing online more than 1.5M square feet of space this year alone. That is enough for 7500 employees in a time when most people now see that job growth will also be static if not recessionary this year.

As a result, we believe a portion of the price increases in the past 12-30 months we’ve seen in some of the softer markets outside those indicated above have been in large part a combination of broker hype and new owners paying dear prices for commercial property and being essentially forced to raise rents to make their deals pencil.

I think that while we may not see landlords drop asking rents immediately, smart landlords see the writing on the walls and we’ll see some get more aggressive in making deals.

NREI is reporting that in January, not a single CMBS was priced in a one-month period. This is the first time in the 20-years since CMBS product was introduced that this has happened.

Also telling is that despite this lack of activity, some $37B in securitizations remain in the pipeline. In the face of this prices have seemed to remain resilient. Longer term though, it is difficult to see how prices will be able to withstand the financing conditions if they continue. Goldman Sachs analyst James Fotheringham doesn’t see it happening and has forecasted that commercial real estate prices might be susceptible to a drop of up to 26% in value through 2009.