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SF Fed Real Estate Lending Update

August 13, 2009

Tweet The 12th District of the FED has put out a real estate lending update. On the commercial side, some interesting stats: Construction and Land Development Loans noncurrent past 90 days amount to 12% in this district’s banks “The CMM model suggests rising loss rates over the next several years for longer-maturing loans, but also […]

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CBRE: There Are Virtually No Real AAA Bonds

June 12, 2009

Tweet CBRE put out a capital markets presentation outlining where we’ve been, how we crashed, and where we are today. The conclusion drawn is that investing in distressed debt yields higher returns with less risk, mainly because the perceived risk to prices is still great. ….and the rest of it reads like an obituary, that […]

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S&P on Insurers and CRE

May 24, 2009

Tweet   Some insight from S&P on the health of insurers in the face of looming troubles in commercial real estate. In February we conducted stress tests that simulated two depressed real estate markets between 1988 and 1995. In these tests, we paid special attention to the capital that might be needed to support the […]

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The Trillion Dollar Storm

May 24, 2009

Tweet The NY Post has an article out discussing the refinancing risk putting some of the biggest players in commercial real estate in peril. The commercial debt securitization market is dead. “Because there is no securitization the system cannot process the wave of maturities coming due,” said Scott Latham, commercial property broker at Cushman & […]

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Nervously Watching Delinquencies

May 13, 2009

Tweet An article in the LA Times today sheds light on the mounting troubles at regional banks. Over the past several years a lot of smaller regional banks got themselves heavily entrenched into financing commercial property and construction. A number of banks have already gone under, but many more are just beginning to feel the […]

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Deutsche Bank Q1 CRE Outlook

May 10, 2009

Tweet I was going through old documents and came across Deutsche Bank’s Q1 commercial real estate outlook. It’s about two months old now, but it has some good info so I figured better to post it late than never. The file, which is embedded below, contains some very good data on CMBS, loan maturities, and […]

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Portland Project Stopped; Highlights Financing Difficulties

April 11, 2009

Tweet Construction of a 50%+ pre-leased project in downtown Portland, Oregon has ground to a halt as a result of a lack of financing. Despite half of the project being committed to by a Nike Store and a law firm, the well-heeled developer behind the project was still unable to secure financing for the Park […]

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CRE Crisis To Eclipse Early 90′s

March 25, 2009

Tweet The WSJ has an article today on the accelerating pace of defaults and delinquencies on commercial loans, and the likelihood that the crisis could eclipse that which occurred in the early 1990′s. Some notable items in the article include: According to an analysis of bank financial reports by The Wall Street Journal, the broad […]

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Operation Print Money Kicks Off Today

March 25, 2009

Tweet The Federal Reserve announced that it will be taking extraordinary measures to keep the system flush with capital, and today it will begin the first operation of a $300B campaign to buy Long Term treasuries. These efforts should drive yields down and loosen credit in the short term. A report in Bloomberg though indicates […]

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Government Moving Towards Bailout of Commercial Real Estate

March 9, 2009

Tweet But office vacancy rates are heading toward record levels, according to one estimate, and banks are exposed, with $1.72 trillion in commercial real estate loans outstanding as of Feb. 18. The Christian Science Monitor has a pretty high-level article on the state of the commercial lending market. For almost a year now, many of […]

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