May 25, 2010
Bad news on the heels of bad news. There are pockets of strength here and there, but overall the sentiment is what drives the equity markets and it seems we’ve reached a point where the self-fulfilling prophecy is achieved by a bunch of machines. Sprinkle in reckless spending and it won’t take long for things to move from Wall Street to Main Street.
What am I talking about? Well, if you’ve been a reader of this blog for any good period of time, you know I have continued to be cautious on the prospects of real estate despite the calls of a recovery which began to emanate from the real estate echo chamber beginning late last year. Perhaps I am too conservative or a skeptic of all this debt, who knows, but what I do know is that I started working 40-hour weeks at a Salvage Yard (while going to school) at age 13. If there was ever a place to learn about value, that was it. Some deals have certainly gone down which have represented good values, and I’ve commented on those, but too many investors seem to be discounting the tick up in interest rates that will have to arrive and what that can do to their values.
You also know that I have stopped blogging as often as I have in the past.
Frankly, there are two reasons for this. The first being that I have started a new Healthcare Real Estate firm which I am very busy with – HealthMed Realty. You may have read about it in the Business Journal.
But the other underlying reason is that I have decided to take a step back and approach blogging the same way I do when I discuss market reports with clients and colleagues. The day to day movement in rents is good information to have, but ultimately it is the direction of the trend line and some educated guesses which dictate what people do.
I will continue to blog about news – but I will be more focused on that which I think impacts real estate and our industry months and years out rather than who took what space, and what happened today or will happen tomorrow. I had also hoped that after a few years of blogging, readers and subscribers (of which there are thousands) would make more of an effort to comment, add value, send in news, etc. but alas I suppose that the old guard in CRE is still in command – for now. Perhaps I was a little naive in that hope.
Regardless, that will change overtime, and so will the brokerage model – which will be the topic of my next post.
- $4.50 NNN? You Must Be Joking
- Deloitte’s Theory on CRE: Could Be, May Be, and Expected To
- Silicon Valley Apartment Rents Fall 11.5%
- Commercial Real Estate Crisis
- Richard LeFrak on CNBC With a Wait and See Attitude