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$46B in CMBS Balances Now Delinquent

March 3, 2010

RealPoint’s February report is out and things continue to get worse on the CMBS front. Not only is the oustanding CMBS loan amount huge, but the rate of growth is staggering. The amount of distressed 90+ day loans rose 28% in one month.

In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. The distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 25th straight month – up by $7.42 billion (28%) from the previous month and over $27.95 billion (508%) in the past year (up from only $5.51 billion in January 2009). This included a substantial jump in 90+-day delinquency in January 2010.

So prices have started to firm up, but delinquencies continue to mount. Graph below, and link to full report at the bottom. Any yet the numbers are sure to rise as the Stuy Town deal gets digested as it was not yet accounted for in these numbers.

RealPointDelinquencies 450x305 $46B in CMBS Balances Now Delinquent

Full report can be downloaded here.

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Categories: Commercial Finance and Lending | Commercial Real Estate Investing
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Comments
joshua March 4, 2010


but none of those are being marketed? why? damn banks are throttling the shit out the REO and NPL markets.

LC Chase March 9, 2010


Here is a great article on this very topic. It talks about the top 15 banks with the most Commercial Loan Exposure and how it may contribute to their demise.

There's going to be huge turnover and a great opportunity for those who can stomach the ride.

http://www.commercialrealestateunderground.com/?p

Mario Cerasuolo March 18, 2010


All CMBS loans are actually held in trusts and are no longer owned by a bank. When these loans go delinquent, they are then transferred to special servicing.

Walden Wong March 26, 2010


Mario is correct in that CMBS loans are actually held in trust and no longer owned by a bank. I'm starting to see the special servicers starting to market those assets. I suspect more will come out this year.

pat March 31, 2010


My question is how badly will this affect the leasing market in commercial space.
I work in los angeles for a broker that handles office buildings at
http://www.officespaceheaven.com/los-angeles.html

thanks
pat

Mario Cerasuolo April 14, 2010


As leases role, rents will continue to drop until there is some stabilization in the market. Retail and Office have been affected most and will be the last asset class to recover.
http://lighthouseas.wordpress.com/


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