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Bruce Mosler of C&W Optimistic

January 26, 2010

Bruce Mosler, co-chairman of Cushman & Wakefield believes that the activity at the end of 2009 will continue. There is no doubt about that; companies as we type are negotiating large deals (there are numerous 200K+ SF deals in the works) in the valley. The question is not absorption so much as it should be net absorption. GDP is not just GDP, it is real GDP, and so on.

You can quantify growth however you want, but their is always a qualifier to that number and sometimes that is what really matters. In business, you can have revenues growing but if your margins are negative, it’s not going to make a lick of difference that you’re growing at a 30% clip unless there is something on the horizon that is about to change that.

Anyhow….we’ve beaten this horse to death. Let’s be optimistic. Rates will remain low, and banks will start wiping the slates clean, and China will continue to buy dollar denominated assets and treasuries. That trio itself could be enough to get us through this. But unless all three happen together, this is going to be a longer and more painful recovery than many are starting to suspect, and though things might look better in 2010, don’t look for the “bounce” to continue.

Here’s the video…

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Categories: Commercial Finance and Lending | Commercial Real Estate Investing | Trends
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joshua January 26, 2010

agreed. keep a positive focus while understanding the reality. the only issue i have is how many dollar denominated assets can china soak up? we have a $1.1T shortfall when QE ends (march). so, obviously, queue up QE 2.0 to help us along a little longer (on the down low please, no more populace outrage). but how long will it take?

Square Feet January 27, 2010

exactly right. Plus look for changes out of China sometime this year vis a vis it's economic policies, and the debt ceiling will be hit soon again.

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