January 20, 2010
Kenneth Laub, CEO of Kenneth D Laub & Co., a New York real estate advisor was on Bloomberg. He provided a pretty clear analysis of what’s going on, and that is prices are tied directly to a stabilization in unemployment. He also did a good job of indicating that some of the most troubled assets are in the hands of some of the same people who have raised the most amounts of cash.
That said, the bottom line at this point in the market is that stabilization leads to certainty, and certainty leads you to capital. When you can’t predict vacancy or rents, then your financial models become vulnerable. Just look at the models of even 18 months ago to see how upside down some of those are. Once investors can rely on the metrics they use with increased confidence, that will allow capital to flow in behind them.
That doesn’t mean prices are going to take off in any way similar to what we saw a few years ago, but we should either form a bottom and possibly even come off those bottoms.
- Bloomberg Article Points to 15% Drop in Commercial Prices
- Surprise Surprise: More Store Closings
- U.S. Office and Retail Vacancy Continues Its Ascent
- Sam Zell on CNBC Discusses Housing and More
- Meredith Whitney on CNBC – Liquidity Problems and Double Dip Ahead