he is very correct that there is somewhat of a “self fulfilling prophecy” with CRE debt. if you believe it, it will happen. we can act to mitigate a lot of the problems (problems dont kill deals, surprises do). we do have the luxury of CRE moving at a slow pace (relative to equities). so we have plenty of opportunity to try and make things right. now, are we still left with $500B to over $1T in debt that needs to be recapitalised? yes. is that easy? no. will we all come out winners? far from it. but those that understand the gravity and play to it immediately and on an on-going basis will make it out alive and may actually be able to cash flow along the way. its an interesting time and we have a VERY long way to go to see how bad it will get, what the best ideas are and how we are making our way out of it.